'Repeat Victimisation - Road to Reduction' - ‘Predictive Mapping and Super-Cocooning in Trafford’

'Repeat Victimisation - Road to Reduction' - ‘Predictive Mapping and Super-Cocooning in Trafford’


The primary aim of this project was to reduce Burglary Dwelling by disrupting the ‘Optimal Forager’. The results demonstrated a reduction in this offence type and through analysis of the location a disruption of this type of offender.

The approach was adapted from a review article by Ross and Pease 2007, ‘Predicting where Lightning will Strike’ relating to research conducted by Shane Johnson and Kate Bowers. This has latterly been enhanced by an effective systematic programme of cocooning and target hardening based on the communicability of burglary risk (Johnson and Bowers 2007).

Phase 1, response to that research involved examining the propensity of offenders to return to a familiar area and the placement of a capable guardian in these areas at the right time, attempting to disrupt the offending pattern of the ‘optimal forager’.

This approach has now been operational for two years with results being favourable for the reduction of Burglary Dwelling. Trafford Police Basic Command Unit (BCU) saw a substantial reduction in Burglary Dwelling offences, outperforming its most similar groups both within Greater Manchester Police (GMP) and nationally.

Phase 2, built on phase 1 was more focused towards victims and how targeted intervention involving Trafford residents could further reduce Burglary Dwelling offences

This project has used scientific research in a simple and cost effective manner to produce patrol plans with complimentary cocooning interventions. The established processes based on the scientific research combined with strong management have played a significant part in the 38.2% reduction in Burglary Dwelling offences over 2 years.




The project started in 2009 and is still running.
Last review: September 2013.